赵晓, 李华, 莫秋丽, 崔佳琳, 张莉. 基于机器学习预测农药对熊蜂和蜜蜂的毒性[J]. 农药学学报, 2020, 22(6): 933-941. DOI: 10.16801/j.issn.1008-7303.2020.0110
    引用本文: 赵晓, 李华, 莫秋丽, 崔佳琳, 张莉. 基于机器学习预测农药对熊蜂和蜜蜂的毒性[J]. 农药学学报, 2020, 22(6): 933-941. DOI: 10.16801/j.issn.1008-7303.2020.0110
    ZHAO Xiao, LI Hua, MO Qiuli, CUI Jialin, ZHANG Li. Toxicity prediction of pesticide to bumblebee and honey bee based on machine learning methods[J]. Chinese Journal of Pesticide Science, 2020, 22(6): 933-941. DOI: 10.16801/j.issn.1008-7303.2020.0110
    Citation: ZHAO Xiao, LI Hua, MO Qiuli, CUI Jialin, ZHANG Li. Toxicity prediction of pesticide to bumblebee and honey bee based on machine learning methods[J]. Chinese Journal of Pesticide Science, 2020, 22(6): 933-941. DOI: 10.16801/j.issn.1008-7303.2020.0110

    基于机器学习预测农药对熊蜂和蜜蜂的毒性

    Toxicity prediction of pesticide to bumblebee and honey bee based on machine learning methods

    • 摘要: 熊蜂 (Bombus spp.) 和蜜蜂 (Apis mellifera L.) 是自然界中的重要传粉昆虫,近年来因为农药的大规模不合理使用造成了世界多个地区熊蜂和蜜蜂种群的持续下降。为了更好地评估农药对熊蜂和蜜蜂的毒性,本研究收集了61个共有的农药蜂毒数据,采用12种分子指纹联合8种机器学习算法,分别建立了农药对熊蜂和蜜蜂急性接触毒性LD50值的分类预测模型。结果表明:农药对熊蜂和蜜蜂的急性接触毒性分类模型预测准确率分别达86.7%和80.0%。随机森林 (Random Forest)、神经网络 (Neural Network) 和支持向量机 (SVM) 3种算法联合Fingerprinter、Klekota-Roth Count和Extend 3种分子指纹在本研究中的预测能力较好。此外,分别采用构建的熊蜂毒性预测模型和蜜蜂毒性预测模型开展交叉毒性预测,准确率分别为72.9%和66.7%,表明熊蜂毒性模型预测蜜蜂毒性的准确性高于蜜蜂毒性模型预测熊蜂毒性的准确性。本研究可为设计低蜂毒化合物提供理论指导,同时为开展不同昆虫靶标的毒性交叉预测提供借鉴。

       

      Abstract: Bumblebee (Bombus spp.) and honey bee (Apis mellifera L.) are important pollinating insects in nature. In recent years, large-scale unreasonable use of pesticides has caused the continuous decline of bumblebee and honey bee populations in many regions of the world. In order to evaluate the toxicity of pesticides to bumblebee and honey bee in a better way, the common toxicity data of 61 pesticides were collected. The classification models for the acute contact toxicity LD50 of bumblebee and honey bee were established using 12 molecular fingerprints combined with 8 machine learning algorithms, respectively. The results showed that the predictive accuracy of the classification model for the acute contact toxicity of bumblebee and honey bee was 86.7% and 80.0%, respectively. Three algorithms (Random Forest, Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine) and three fingerprints (Fingerprinter, Klekota-Roth Count, and Extend) had a better predictive ability in our study. In addition, the prediction models of bumblebee and honey bee were used to carry out cross-toxicity predictions with the predictive accuracy of 72.9% and 66.7%, respectively. The toxicity prediction model of bumblebee is more accurate in predicting honey bee toxicity than the toxicity prediction model of honey bee for the prediction of bumblebee toxicity. Our study has provided theoretical guidance to design low-toxicity compounds and predict the cross-toxicity for the different insect targets.

       

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